Prognosis

• an intensive insulin regimen ^a
• a history of hypoglycaemia ^b
• a low HbA1c ^b

Why?

An intensive insulin regimen increases the risk of severe hypoglycaemia

Patient	Treatment	Comparison	Outcome	CER	OR (95% CI)	NNT (95% CI)
type 1 diabetes mellitus a	intensive insulin regimen	conventional therapy	severe hypoglycaemia at 2-6 years	30%	2.88 (2.38 to 3.48)	4 (3 to 5)

A history of hypoglycaemia or a low HbA-1c increase the risk of hypoglycaemia

Patient	Prognostic Factor	Outcome	CER	OR (95% CI)	NNF+ (95% CI)
type 1 diabetes b	history of hypoglycaemia at 6.5 years independent	hypoglycaemia requiring assistance at 6.5 years	41% (38% to 45%)	1.33 (1.17 to 1.52)	14 (10 to 26)
	fall in HbA1c by 10% (at baseline of 9%) independent			1.53 (1.43 to 1.64)	9 (8 to 11)